#13 The Discrepancy of Certainty

Carrying a uterus means carrying uncertainty.

If your head has been spinning like mine since last week, let’s remind ourselves that it’s because we are human. Listing all the world-shattering headlines here wouldn’t be a healthy exercise, but if you missed it, the markets are experiencing some historic turbulence as well. Monday morning, The New York Times declared that we are continuing to experience head-spinning volatility in the markets. After nearly two decades of loose monetary policy, the markets are struggling to process the Fed’s efforts to slow the economy to fight inflation. Everyone is processing the information differently (fighting inflation is good! but maybe this is the start of a recession? the tech companies are overvalued! but Elon says he’s going to make Twitter amaaaazing…), then they are looking at each other and reacting to each other people’s reactions with FOMO or panic, thus unleashing even more global volatility.

It’s layers upon layers of uncertainty.

In other words, it’s kind of what it feels like to be a woman.

In economics, it is accepted principle that certainty breeds prosperity. Broken down to a micro level, the principle is founded in human psychology and behavior. The more certain I am about my future, the more I am free to pursue the things that matter. With some casual observation, we can see this principle everywhere.

Children feel secure and can flourish when they have routines because they can move through their days with some certainty about what comes next. People can plan their annual budgets knowing with certainty that holiday gifting happens in December every year. Families can book their summer plans knowing in advance that the school year ends on a certain date. We build in certainty of events and routines into our days, weeks, months, and years so that we can flourish with proaction, instead of in reaction to ever-changing circumstances.

For individuals, reasonable certainty allows for planning and execution. But as women, we carry the burden of many layers of uncertainty, rooted in the biological fact that our bodies carry the babies. The layers of unknown variables then compound the uncertainty.

For example, let’s take a female graduating MBA student in her late-20s. The fact that she carries a uterus means she is already carrying the burden of wondering if and when she would like to have children. That nugget of uncertainty is then compounded by further unknown variables like (a) with whom, (b) under what kind of relationship status, if any, (c) on what timeline, and (d) on what timeline relative to her career she would like to have a child.

Tied into this will be an overarching uncertainty of (e) whether or not she would be able to get pregnant, with (f) what medical interventions, which may or may not be possible, depending on (g) her and/or her partner’s financial means. Many of these variables are interrelated (e.g., the necessary medical interventions (e) may be impacted by her age (c)), and they may impact many decisions she makes as she advances in her career.

Even after navigating all of that uncertainty, if and when she does become pregnant, there are additional levels of unknown, unfolding variables that can significantly impact her outlook on life and career, including but not limited to (i) whether or not she will carry the baby to full term, (ii) how she will fare health-wise during her pregnancy (mild to debilitating nausea? perinatal depression? high risk factors that limit her mobility? factors that complicate preexisting health conditions?), and (iii) whether it will be a vaginal or c-section delivery and the associated implications for recovery.

And once the baby arrives, the uncertainty continues: (1) Will the baby be healthy or will there be any health issues to manage? (2) Will they breastfeed, bottle feed, or both? (3) How will she recover postpartum, both physically and mentally? (4) What about childcare? Those early days, weeks, and months will be ever-continuing changes that breed additional uncertainty.

All of the above illustrates the layers of uncertainty that a woman consciously carries and navigates when she’s optimistically looking ahead in life. Let’s not forget that for uterus-carrying folks, there is always the possibility of an unwanted, non-viable, or life-threatening pregnancy, and now, the very real uncertainty about whether or not she will be able to make choices about her own body. These are uncertainties that linger just beneath the surface. They rise up in those critical moments — peeing anxiously on a pregnancy test after a missed period, holding your breath while you await the sonogram results, or finding a safe way to leave a party when the only remaining people there are male and seriously inebriated.

It’s not that men get to sail through life without experiencing any uncertainty. It’s just that women have to navigate significantly more, at compounded levels. And it happens to coincide with what has traditionally been perceived and institutionalized as the most critical years for building careers.

Why does this matter?

That female graduating MBA student in her late 20s is likely looking ahead at her career with a lot of what if’s and when’s, holding up all the uncertain variables arising from her reproductive capability. A male graduating MBA student in his late 20s is likely able to look ahead at his career trajectory with more certainty that if he does X, he will achieve Y; there are no known obstacles clouding his vision of his future. If he has hopes or plans for having a family, any related uncertainty is distant from his mind. On paper, they are equals, but even before they become parents, there is a significant discrepancy in mental load.

If we want to address the gender pay gap or gender inequality, we have to start by acknowledging that women carry compounded layers of uncertainty that men do not. Like the markets, it is difficult to grow steadily and prosper when there is so much uncertainty. When we look at policies that are aimed at improving gender equality, they should be evaluated on whether they can absorb or counteract the increased uncertainty that women carry. It’s essentially a leading indicator that we often overlook. It could be a more lasting measure of success and well-being than lagging indicators like economic outcomes.